Cost of living - latest: Another UK interest rate hike now 'probable' as inflation doesn't fall as much as expected (2023)

Key points
  • Inflation falls to 8.7%
  • Cost of living crisis is starting to abate - so why are economists not happy and what could happen next? | Ed Conway
  • Another interest rate rise now 'firmly on table'
  • New prediction for when 2% inflation target will be hit
  • IMF dramatically upgrades outlook for UK economy
  • Netflix's crackdown on password sharing starts in UK
  • Your dilemmas: My employer has reduced my hours while I'm on maternity leave - is this allowed?
  • Budgeting Mum: Saving for your children | Do food subscriptions save you money?| Holiday spending money| Best broadband deals


Your dilemmas: I am paying my dad's mortgage, how do I get added on formally?


My dad is 76 in October - he has eight years left on his mortgage and his fixed term ends in March. Both my husband and I live with him. Our credit rating isn't great, but we are paying the mortgage as it is. How likely is it that either he will get another fixed term or us added on?

Megan Baynes, cost of living specialist says:When adding someone to your mortgage, there are two ways to do it -

Tenants in Common: The parties involved typically own a percentage of the property (it doesn't have to be 50-50).If one party dies the house would not automatically pass to the other tenant-in-common.

Joint Tenants: This is the most common option. Both parties would have equal rights to the entire property. In the event of a death, the property would be passed on to the other owner.

I am guessing you would be looking to become joint tenants, because you would then have equal rights to the property.

You will be subject to the same standard checks as anyone applying for a mortgage, where they will look at your income and affordability.

You may also be charged stamp duty because you will be seen as technically purchasing part of the property – and it involves making legal changes to the property deeds.

If you choose to go down this route, you will need to consult a solicitor first. I would advise reaching out to one that specialises in housing for an initial consultation – they will be able to speak to your exact circumstances and say what is possible.

Another option could involve your dad mortgaging the property and then applying for a new, joint mortgage with you – in effect you will be applying for a brand-new mortgage. In this instance, if you are looking for the best deal you should instruct a mortgage broker to help you.

Bob Singh, from Chess Mortgages, told me: "It certainly would be possible, provided the income is sufficient. Lenders will take a view on the credit file, unless it's very recent events effecting it."

Ultimately, he said, "good mortgage advice is key2 so reach out to someone you trust – or somewhere that has good reviews – before you do anything.


Five major banks may have broken the law by sharing information in online chatrooms

Five major banks broke the law by sharing sensitive information about government bond trading in online chatrooms, the UK competition watchdog has provisionally ruled.

Citi, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and RBC unlawfully shared information in one-to-one conversations in Bloomberg chatrooms, The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) alleges.

The conversations, which related to the buying and selling of UK government bonds, were allegedly had by a few traders between 2009 and 2013.

(Video) UK economy crippled by inflation - are high prices here to stay?

"This could have denied taxpayers, pension savers and financial institutions the benefits of full competition for these products, including the minimisation of borrowing costs," Michael Grenfell, executive director of enforcement at the CMA, said.

Deutsche Bank and Citi have admitted to participating in the alleged conversations relating to them, but HSBC, Morgan Stanley and RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) have not admitted any wrongdoing, it added.

The CMA said the probe is ongoing, and it could ultimately hand out fines if it concludes that two or more of the banks engaged in anticompetitive activity.


Spending calculator: See which prices have gone up or down

As we have been outlining through the morning, prices have increased over the past 12 months by 8.7% on average, putting pressure on already stretched household budgets.

But how much has your individual spending gone up? Use our calculator to see how much prices are rising on the groceries, clothing, and leisure activities you pay for.


Average house price drops by £3,000 since last month - but it's increased since last year

The average UK house price increased by 4.1% in the 12 months to March, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

A typical property now costs around £285,000 - £11,000 more than this time last year.

But March's figure is £8,000 cheaper than the recent peak in November, and £3,000 less than February.

Here's a national breakdown of house prices and how much they have risen since March 2022:

  • England - £304,000 - up 4.1%
  • Wales - £214,000 - up 4.8%
  • Scotland - £185,000 - up 3%
  • Northern Ireland - £172,000 - up 5%

Regular readers will remember earlier this week that Rightmove said house prices had jumped in the last month. Their figures are bang up to date - whereas the official ones released by the ONS have a lag.


Another interest rate hike now 'firmly on table'

(Video) Economy Latest: Interest rates up as Bank of England warns of long recession

It's not just our own Ed Conway who believes today's inflation figure could prompt another interest rate rise.

Pantheon Macroeconomics said the drop from 10.1% to 8.7% was "too small".

Interest rate rises, of course, are a way for the Bank of England to try to ease inflation, because they mean people have less money to spend, and are encouraged to save, and when this happens prices tend to go up less quickly.

Pantheon Macroeconomics says: "A further increase in Bank rate to 4.75% at the MPC's next meeting on 22 June, from 4.5%, now is firmly on the table."

Sky-high food prices and rising inflation in the services sector will be a "worry" for the Bank, the firm said.

On what will happen with inflation now, Pantheon Macroeconomics points to something that we're expecting tomorrow...

"CPI inflation will continue to fall quickly over the coming months. Tomorrow, Ofgem likely will announce that the typical household’s annualised energy bill will drop to about £2,050 in July, down 18% from the current £2,500 level.

"This will ensure that energy’s contribution to the headline rate falls."


Three-minute read: Cost of living crisis is starting to abate - so why are economists not happy and what could happen next?

By Ed Conway, economics and data editor

They sometimes call economics the "dismal science", and listening to economists today you can understand why.

Inflation - the percentage rate at which prices are rising each year - has just fallen out of double digits for the first time since last summer - down from 10.1% in March to 8.7% in April.

Finally, the cost of living crisis - or rather the rate at which the crisis is worsening - is beginning to abate. So why are economists so glum this morning?

It comes back to the fact that lurking beneath that one big inflation number are two separate issues. And while the news on one is good, the news on the other is bad.

Let's take the good news first.

The main thing pushing up the cost of living over the past couple of years has been rising energy prices.

They've been reflected in our household bills and our fuel costs, as well as, to some extent, everywhere else too. It has been a miserable period for many.

So it's welcome news that some of that pressure is beginning to abate. While energy bills are still many multiples higher than they were a few years ago, the rate at which they're rising (and remember, inflation is a rate of increase over a year, not absolute levels) is slowing.

The very biggest leaps in energy bills happened more than a year ago, and so the annual rate of energy price inflation no longer looks quite so dramatic.

And there'll be better news on this front tomorrow when Ofgem announces the latest level for the energy price cap - which will determine household bills later this summer.

It's expected to fall for the first time in years.

But there's something else going on here, too. Because when economists look at inflation they tend to be most exercised not by higher fuel or food prices.

Painful though they may be for households, these prices are quite volatile from year to year. But strip those volatile elements away from overall inflation, and you are left with something called "core inflation".

(Video) The Bank of England announces interest rate decision

This is a better measure of the underlying direction of travel for inflation. If core inflation is high it means there's a greater chance that overall inflation stays high, not just for a short period but for the long run. And core inflation is high right now.

Indeed, far from falling in April like the overall rate, it actually rose, from 6.2% to 6.8%, the highest level in three decades.

That's the kind of number that deeply worries economists, since it suggests there's a chance inflation is becoming embedded in the economy - that households and businesses are beginning to assume prices are going to carry on rising for some time.

In other words, while the headline number reported today looks like good news for most of us - and indeed it is in some respects good news - the underlying picture from today's figures is quite the opposite. It suggests inflation is more sticky, more of a problem, than it previously seemed.

And the upshot of that is that the Bank of England is likely to look at today's figures and assume its work is not yet over.

Its job is to ensure inflation remains as close as possible to 2%, and today's figures make that job look a lot harder.

So the likelihood is that the Bank will raise interest rates again at its meeting next month, to 4.75%. And perhaps even higher thereafter, which will in turn only increase the pressure on many households.

Dismal as it might sound, this cost of living crisis isn't yet over.


Asda to run £1 kids meals again during half-term

To help with rising food prices, Asda has announced it will run its Kids Eat for £1 café meal deals over the forthcoming half-term.

The supermarket served over 115,000 meals in the two-week Easter holiday period.

"The deal stands apart from other retailers as it comes with no hidden extras such as a minimum adult spend," Asda said.

The menu includes Penne Pasta with Meatballs and a vegan Hidden Veg pasta meal. Kids also receive a free piece of fruit when purchasing the hot £1 meal deal.

As an alternative to a hot meal, Asda Café’s also offer a £1 cold pick and mix selection that includes a sandwich, drink and piece of fruit.


New prediction for when inflation will hit 2% target

While it is positive that inflation has fallen to 8.7%, it is still a long way off the Bank of England's 2% target - and as we have been discussing, the headline figure is not coming down as quickly as expected.

Alluding to the core inflation issue we outlined in our 7.42am post, Jake Finney, an economist at the PwC accounting firm, said: "More troublingly, services inflation - which the Bank of England pays close attention to - rose from 6.6% to 6.9%.

"This is its highest rate since March 1992 and is higher than the Bank of England's expectation of 6.7% earlier this month."

(Video) Bank of England Interest Rate Decision May 2023 - My Take

Following today's announcement and "more persistent inflation pressures", he believes the Bank will not hit its 2% target until late 2024.

"By then, consumer prices could have risen by as much as one-fifth," he added.

Despite this, Mr Finney predicts inflation will continue to fall over the coming months, with the next noteworthy decline likely to come in July when the energy price guarantee comes to an end.

"At that point, large falls in wholesale gas prices will start to translate into lower energy prices for UK consumers," he said.


Falling inflation will take time to materialise in supermarkets - ONS

This is what Grant Fitzner, chief economist for the Office for National Statistics, has been saying in morning interviews.

"We are no longer in double digit territory," he told BBC Radio 4. "We have seen falls in bread, cereals, fish, milk, cheese, eggs, sugar, jam and honey - so that is positive."


"Let's not forget a lot of supermarkets have fixed contracts which can take six or 12 months to roll off, as those contracts expire you would expect them to be renegotiated at lower prices.

"It'll take some time for this to wash through to retail prices."


Jeremy Hunt responds - as Labour attacks government

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has given his response to the inflation figures.

"The IMF said yesterday we've acted decisively to tackle inflation but although it is positive that it is now in single digits, food prices are still rising too fast.

"So as well as helping families with around £3,000 of cost of living support this year and last, we must stick resolutely to the plan to get inflation down."

We've also had comments from shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves, who said: "As bills keep surging, families will be worried food prices and the cost of other essentials are still increasing.

"They will be asking why this Tory government still refuses to properly tackle this cost of living crisis, and why they won't bring in a proper windfall tax on the enormous profits of oil and gas giants."

She said Labour's mission was to secure the highest sustained growth in the G7 to make families better off.

(Video) Fed should be done with rate hikes as inflation begins to slow, says Moody's Mark Zandi


Cost of living - latest: Another UK interest rate hike now 'probable' as inflation doesn't fall as much as expected? ›

Cost of living - latest: Another UK interest rate hike now 'probable' as inflation doesn't fall as much as expected. The Bank of England is "probably going to have to raise interest rates again", says Ed Conway, as inflation falls to 8.7% - which is less than expected.

What is the Bank of England inflation forecast for 2023? ›

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 10 May 2023, the MPC voted by a majority of 7–2 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4.5%.

What will happen to interest rates in 2023 UK? ›

In summary: On 11th May 2023 the Bank of England (BOE) raised the base rate from 4.25% to 4.5%, its highest level in over 14 years. The BOE raised interest rates in an attempt to reduce the UK's annual inflation rate, which now sits at 10.1%, well above the target rate of 2%.

What is the interest rate forecast for the next 5 years in the UK? ›

After hitting a new high of 5%, UK interest rates are expected to fall sharply in the coming two years with rates possibly between 3.5% and 4% in 2024 before falling to between 3% and 3.5% in 2025. UK interest rates are expected to stabilise between 3.0% and 3.5% between 2025 and 2027.

Will UK cost of living go down? ›

Unfortunately not. Prices are rising even faster for poorer households. This is because the costs of essentials are soaring at higher rates, and low-income families typically spend a greater proportion of their income on these items.

What will inflation be in September 2023 UK? ›

In 2023, the annual inflation rate for the United Kingdom is expected to be 6.1 percent, following an annual rate of 9.1 percent in 2022. Prior to 2022, the inflation rate was at it's highest in 2011 when it reached 4.5 percent.

What is the UK economy forecast for 2023? ›

UK: average GDP growth and business investment

Pay growth should also slow, with average earnings growth for 2023 forecast to be 4.2%, down from 6.4% in 2022.

How long will UK interest rates stay high? ›

If, instead, financial stress worries take over, UK interest rates might end up below 4 per cent by the end of 2023. The Bank of England's (BoE) policy rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent. The Bank's policy rate sets the tone for movements in other UK interest rates such as mortgage and lending rates.

What are predicted interest rates UK 2024? ›

Economists at UBS are also predicting a further interest rate rise in May, and are expecting inflation to average 6.5% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, before dropping to the Bank of England's 2% target by the end of 2025.

Will savings interest rates continue to rise in 2023 UK? ›

With inflation still running rampant at 10.7%, we'll likely see the base rate keep rising for a little while yet. But as inflation is forecast to drop back to below 1.4% by the end of 2024, the BoE is likely to start reducing the base rate in the coming years.

How high could interest rates go in the next 5 years? ›

The predictions made by the various analysts and banks provide insight into what the financial markets anticipate for interest rates over the next few years. Based on recent data, Trading Economics predicts a rise to 5% in 2023 before falling back down to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025.

What is the UK interest rate decision forecast? ›

Forecasts show interest rates may now peak in September at around 4.9% - before starting to slowly come down after that. Interest rates have risen at 11 consecutive meetings since December 2021 in a bid to keep a lid on price pressures in the economy.

How high will interest rates go in 2023? ›

So far in 2023, the Fed raised rates 0.25 percentage points twice. If they hike rates at the May meeting, it is likely to be another 0.25% jump, meaning interest rates will have increased by 0.75% in 2023, up to 5.25%.

Is it cheaper to live in the UK than the USA? ›

When it comes to grocery and food prices, the UK is the winner in terms of overall affordability. The average British household spends less on groceries per month compared to the average American household, and UK supermarkets tend to offer more own-brand products, which are generally cheaper but still of good quality.

How much cheaper is it to live in the UK than the US? ›

Overall, the cost of living in the U.K. is 0.49% lower than in the United States. Rent overall is about 22.55% lower in the U.K. You would need $4,700 per month to finance a modest lifestyle in London, compared to $5,822 for the equivalent lifestyle in New York City.

Why is the UK so unaffordable? ›

Shortage of supply – low numbers of new houses built. Rising number of population. UK population rising, plus number of households increasing due to social factors, such as more people living alone.

Will food prices go down in 2023? ›

Food prices are projected to rise in 2023, albeit at a slower pace than they did in 2022, according to the USDA.

What is inflation predicted to be September 2023? ›

In all scenarios, there is a rapid fall in inflation from February 2023, which is due to the drop out of the high inflation figures in the corresponding months this year. However, inflation will remain well above 3% for the whole of 2023 and NIESR's current forecast is that it will not return to target until mid-2025.

How long will inflation last in 2023? ›

Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic (2017–19) levels of about 3.5 percent.

Will there be deflation in 2023 UK? ›

the UK economy is expected to face a prolonged recession with declining growth and increased unemployment in 2023-24, causing deflation (of course this could also cause problems for Sunak's pledge to boost economic growth)

Is the UK economy growing or Shrinking? ›

The latest GDP figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 13 April show that although the UK economy isn't shrinking, it isn't growing either.

What is the economic forecast for England? ›

The UK economy is expected to shrink this year and will be at the back of the leading G7 countries at a time when a fresh outbreak of financial upheaval threatens the slowing global recovery, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

How long are interest rates expected to remain high? ›

An interest rate forecast by Trading Economics, as of 12 May, predicted that the Fed Funds Rate could hit 5.25% by the end of this quarter - a forecast that has been materialised. The rate is then predicted to fall back to 3.75% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025, according to our econometric models.

How long will interest rates stay up? ›

First, we expect the Fed to pause its rate hikes by summer 2023. Then starting around the end of 2023, we expect the Fed to begin cutting the federal-funds rate. The Fed will pivot to monetary easing as inflation falls back to its 2% target and the need to shore up economic growth becomes a top concern.

What is the best savings rate in the UK? ›

Best savings rates today
Product typeAER
Notice savings4.30%See deals
Cash ISAs5.00%See deals
1 year fixed rate bond4.97%See deals
5 year fixed rate bond5.00%See deals
2 more rows
May 12, 2023

Where will UK interest rates be in 2025? ›

In 2025, the UK central bank predicted interest rates would fall back to 3.6%, declining further to 3.3% in 2026. Note, however, that their predictions may change quickly as they have recently upgraded their GDP and inflation forecasts.

What will Bank of England interest rate be in 2025? ›

The Bank of England will cut the base rate to 3 per cent by the end of next year and then 2.5 per cent by the end of 2025, according to forecasts. That would be a substantial decline from the current 4.25 per cent but would still represent rates rising like a rocket and falling like a feather.

Will interest rates go down in 2026 UK? ›

Their forecasts are based on financial market expectations, which see interest rates rising slightly to 4.3% by early 2024 and then falling back to 3.3% by 2026. These figures are highly significant.

Where can I get 5% interest on my savings UK? ›

Existing-customer regular savers – what we'd go for
ProviderRate (AER)How to open
Nationwide5.25% variable for two yearsOnline (also open to non-customers)
Barclays5.12% variable on up to £5,000Online/ app/ branch/ phone
TSB5% fixed for one yearOnline/ branch
HSBC5% fixed for one yearOnline/ branch/ phone
7 more rows
May 17, 2023

Where can I get 7% interest on my money? ›

7% interest isn't something banks offer in the US, but one credit union, Landmark CU, pays 7.50% interest, though there are major requirements and stipulations.

Which bank gives 7% interest on savings account UK? ›

First Direct's regular saver account pays the most interest of any account in the market with a rate of 7%. However, you need to open a First Direct current account to qualify for one. You can save up to £300 a month, giving you £3,600 after a year.

What year will interest rates go down again? ›

Don't Hold Your Breath For Rates To Fall This Year

“I predict interest rates will not decrease until mid-2024,” said Baruch Silvermann, banking expert and CEO of The Smart Investor. “Although there has been a decrease, inflation remains high and is unlikely to fall below 4%.

Where will interest rates be in 2027? ›

Interest Rates for 2021 to 2027. CBO projects that the interest rates on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes will average 2.8 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, during the 2021–2027 period. The federal funds rate is projected to average 3.1 percent.

What happens if the interest rate is higher in the US than in the UK and if the forward rate of the British pound? ›

If the interest rate is higher in the U.S. than in the United Kingdom, and if the forward rate of the British pound (in U.S. dollars) is the same as the pound's spot rate, then: British investors could possibly benefit from covered interest arbitrage.

What is current UK interest rate? ›

Bank Rate is currently 4.5%.

Will interest rates go down in 2024? ›

These organizations predict that mortgage rates will decline through the first quarter of 2024. Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors expect mortgage rates to drop through the first quarter of 2024, by half a percentage point to about nine-tenths of a percentage point.

What will the Fed interest rate be at the end of 2023? ›

Fed Rate Hikes 2022-2023: Taming Inflation
FOMC Meeting DateRate Change (bps)Federal Funds Rate
May 3, 2023+255.00% to 5.25%
March 2, 2023+254.75% to 5.00%
Feb 1, 2023+254.50% to 4.75%
Dec 14, 2022+504.25% to 4.50%
6 more rows
May 3, 2023

What will interest rates be in 2023 2024? ›

Direct Loan Interest Rates for 2023-2024
Loan Type10-Year Treasury Note High YieldFixed Interest Rate
Direct Subsidized Loans and Direct Unsubsidized Loans for Undergraduate Students3.448%5.50%
Direct Unsubsidized Loans for Graduate and Professional Students3.448%7.05%
1 more row
May 16, 2023

How high will interest rates go in 2025? ›

Keep in mind that during an inflationary run it's challenging to predict future mortgage rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association: The D.C.-based trade group projects that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 5.2% in 2023. Beyond this year, the group expects mortgage rates to average 4.4% in both 2024 and 2025.

Is it safer to live in the UK than in the US? ›

Is the UK safer than the USA? The UK has a lower overall crime rate than the US, but the US has a lower rate of certain types of crime, such as property crime. In terms of violent crime, the US has a higher rate than the UK.

Is it better to live in the UK or USA? ›

The UK is often considered to be a cheaper place to live. The cost of living in both countries is not the same and can vary depending on where people choose to live. It's also important to note that the average salary for someone in the US is significantly higher than what it would be in the UK due to taxes.

What is the cheapest way to move from USA to UK? ›

Ocean freight is the most economical route. However, if you need a speedy delivery, you may want to consider air freight on the higher side of cost. Moving from the US to England is the most common route to the UK. The major ports include Felixstowe, London, Liverpool, and Southampton.

Is food more expensive in UK or USA? ›

Cost of Food

Bread, rice, and many fruits and vegetables are mostly less expensive in the UK. However, keep in mind that foods such as milk, chicken breasts, and eggs will cost you between 20-40% more in the UK. Again, it's important to consider which city in the US you're considering moving to.

What is the salary in the UK compared to the US? ›

How do salaries compare with the UK? According to the Office for National Statistics, the average UK salary is £26,266, while the latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the average annual wage in the United States is $53,490 per year (about £38,941).

Which UK country is the cheapest to live in? ›

Cheapest Places To Live In UK
  • Durham, North East England. Durham is located in northeast England, south of Newcastle upon Tyne. ...
  • Belfast, Capital of Northern Ireland. Belfast is the capital of Northern Ireland, and it was also where the RMS Titanic was built. ...
  • Leicester. ...
  • Stirling. ...
  • Lancaster. ...
  • Cardiff. ...
  • Newcastle. ...
  • Coventry.
Apr 18, 2023

How did the US become richer than UK? ›

One of the most basic reasons is that Americans work harder — or at least longer. Innovation and entrepreneurship is perhaps the biggest factor, which is reflected in the fact that Big Tech in the West is dominated by American firms. Natural resource endowments can make a difference too.

Why is Britain still rich? ›

The UK is home to a number of large energy companies, including two of the six oil and gas "supermajors" – BP and Royal Dutch Shell. The UK is also rich in a number of natural resources including coal, tin, limestone, iron ore, salt, clay, chalk, gypsum, lead and silica.

Where is the most expensive country to live? ›

Monaco is the most expensive country to live in, with a cost of living of $3,585 per month. Other expensive countries to live in include the Cayman Islands, Switzerland, and Singapore, all of which have a cost of living of over $2,000 per month.

What is the projected inflation rate for 2023? ›

Different agencies' predictions differ, putting US CPI inflation within the range of 7.0% to 8.1% percent in 2022 and around 2.8-3.5% in 2023. All agencies predicted that CPI inflation in 2023 will be 0.8-1.5% higher compared to the Federal Reserve target of 2%.

What will price inflation be in 2023? ›

The annual inflation rate in the US is expected to remain steady at 5% in April 2023, the lowest since May 2021, but still much above the 2.1% average reported from 2000 to 2020. On a monthly basis, the CPI is projected to increase by 0.4%, significantly higher than the 0.1% rise observed in March.

What is the predicted inflation rate for 2023 and 2024? ›

Projected annual inflation rate in the United States from 2010 to 2028*
CharacteristicInflation rate
9 more rows
Apr 20, 2023

What should be the inflation rate for 2023? ›

In all scenarios, there is a rapid fall in inflation from February 2023, which is due to the drop out of the high inflation figures in the corresponding months this year. However, inflation will remain well above 2% for the whole of 2023.

Will inflation go away in 2023? ›

In 2023, economic activity is projected to stagnate, with rising unemployment and falling inflation. Interest rates are projected to remain high initially and then gradually decrease in the next few years as inflation continues to slow.

What is the inflation forecast for Europe in 2023? ›

The baseline projection sees headline inflation declining from 10.0% in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023, then hovering around 3.0% in 2024, before falling to the ECB's inflation target of 2.0% only in the third quarter of 2025 (Chart 4).

Which country has the highest inflation rate 2023? ›

Inflation Rate by Country
#CountryPercentage Change (vs. 2021)
107 more rows

Will grocery prices go down in 2023? ›

Food prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 but still at above historical-average rates. In 2023, all food prices are predicted to increase 6.5 percent, with a prediction interval of 4.9 to 8.2 percent.

What is the predicted inflation rate for 2024? ›

Buying power of $1 in 2024

Future inflation is estimated at 3.00%. When $1 is equivalent to $1.21 over time, that means that the "real value" of a single U.S. dollar decreases over time. In other words, a dollar will pay for fewer items at the store.

Will prices go down in 2023? ›

In some categories there will be deflation, or an outright drop in price levels. In the charts below, these trends show up as a declining rate of year-over-year inflation toward the end of 2022. By the end of 2023, many and perhaps all of those charts will show negative year-over-year inflation, or deflation.

What is the inflation forecast for 2023 to 2026? ›

The figure shows the expected inflation rates on a global average for the years 2023 (7%), 2024 (5.9%) and 2026 (5%).

What will inflation be in 2024 UK? ›

We expect inflation to fall quite quickly, to around 5% by the end of this year and then meet our 2% target by late 2024.

What is the projected inflation rate for the next 5 years? ›

Basic Info. US Expected Change in Inflation Rates: Next 5 Years is at 3.20%, compared to 3.00% last month and 3.00% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 3.20%.

Why is UK inflation higher than Europe? ›

Gas prices

Rising energy prices hit UK households and businesses hard - harder than in other European countries. According to Reuters, Britain's high rate of energy inflation shows it's over-reliant on gas for heating homes. It also reflects the poor energy efficiency of its housing stock.

Has UK inflation peaked? ›

Our indicative modelled estimates of consumer price inflation suggest that the peak in the CPI rate in October 2022 was the highest annual inflation rate since 1981 (the CPI National Statistic series begins in January 1997).

Why has UK cost of living increased? ›

Many of the reasons are the same - increased energy costs, shortages of goods and materials and the fallout from Covid. The annual inflation rate for countries which use the euro is estimated to be 6.9% for March, down from 8.5% in February. Inflation has been falling in the US too.


1. Fed will ease off on interest rates because of slowing inflation, says JPM's Camporeale
(CNBC Television)
2. In full: Bank of England makes its latest announcement on interest rates
(Sky News)
3. Interest Rates: Bank considerably more optimistic about economy - Analysis
(Sky News)
4. Interest Rates: Bank of England warns two-thirds of pain yet to come
(Sky News)
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