Key points
- Inflation falls to 8.7%
- Cost of living crisis is starting to abate - so why are economists not happy and what could happen next? | Ed Conway
- Another interest rate rise now 'firmly on table'
- New prediction for when 2% inflation target will be hit
- IMF dramatically upgrades outlook for UK economy
- Netflix's crackdown on password sharing starts in UK
- Your dilemmas:I am paying my dad's mortgage, how do I get added on formally?
- Budgeting Mum: Saving for your children | Do food subscriptions save you money?| Holiday spending money| Best broadband deals
Here are the latest mortgage rates - and expect 'more activity' from lenders this week
We have been talking lots today about interest rates rising again down the line - but what's happening right now?
The latest data released by Rightmove suggests the market is stabilising - even though rates are still considerably higher than last year.
Here are the latest average deals...
The estate agent's mortgage expert Matt Smith said the rates were "reassuring for movers" and will help them "understand how much they are likely to pay each month".
"Looking a bit deeper, we have seen the last remaining sub-4% rates removed by lenders, reflecting increases in swap rates over the last few weeks," he added.
"The cheapest rates available are now 4.06% at both 60 and 75% loan to value."
Off the back of today's inflation announcement, which saw a smaller decline than expected, Mr Smith said there may be "more activity from lenders" in the coming week.
However, this might not be good news as the 8.7% figure could mean "further pressure on lenders to increase rates", he added.
Help to Save scheme extended - it could earn you £1,200
Three million more people could potentially benefit from the extension of a scheme to help those on low incomes build a savings buffer, HMRC says.
The Help to Save scheme, which offers a bonus payment worth up to £1,200 over four years, had previously been due to end in September 2023 but it will be extended until April 2025.
More than 359,200 people have opened savings accounts since its launch in September 2018.
Under the scheme, savers can deposit between £1 and £50 a month into their account and will receive a government bonus, even if money has been withdrawn.
Bonus payments are paid in the second and fourth years.
Someone saving £2,400 - the maximum amount they could deposit over four years - would receive a £1,200 bonus from the government, paid directly into their bank account.
Eligible savers can find out more and how to apply on gov.uk or via the HMRC app. People may be eligible if they receive working tax credit or universal credit.
Your dilemmas: I am paying my dad's mortgage, how do I get added on formally?
Devan:
My dad is 76 in October - he has eight years left on his mortgage and his fixed term ends in March. Both my husband and I live with him. Our credit rating isn't great, but we are paying the mortgage as it is. How likely is it that either he will get another fixed term or us added on?
Megan Baynes, cost of living specialist says:When adding someone to your mortgage, there are two ways to do it -
Tenants in Common: The parties involved typically own a percentage of the property (it doesn't have to be 50-50).If one party dies the house would not automatically pass to the other tenant-in-common.
Joint Tenants: This is the most common option. Both parties would have equal rights to the entire property. In the event of a death, the property would be passed on to the other owner.
I am guessing you would be looking to become joint tenants, because you would then have equal rights to the property.
You will be subject to the same standard checks as anyone applying for a mortgage, where they will look at your income and affordability.
You may also be charged stamp duty because you will be seen as technically purchasing part of the property – and it involves making legal changes to the property deeds.
If you choose to go down this route, you will need to consult a solicitor first. I would advise reaching out to one that specialises in housing for an initial consultation – they will be able to speak to your exact circumstances and say what is possible.
Another option could involve your dad mortgaging the property and then applying for a new, joint mortgage with you – in effect you will be applying for a brand-new mortgage. In this instance, if you are looking for the best deal you should instruct a mortgage broker to help you.
Bob Singh, from Chess Mortgages, told me: "It certainly would be possible, provided the income is sufficient. Lenders will take a view on the credit file, unless it's very recent events effecting it."
Ultimately, he said, "good mortgage advice is key2 so reach out to someone you trust – or somewhere that has good reviews – before you do anything.
Five major banks may have broken the law by sharing information in online chatrooms
Five major banks broke the law by sharing sensitive information about government bond trading in online chatrooms, the UK competition watchdog has provisionally ruled.
Citi, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and RBC unlawfully shared information in one-to-one conversations in Bloomberg chatrooms, The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) alleges.
The conversations, which related to the buying and selling of UK government bonds, were allegedly had by a few traders between 2009 and 2013.
"This could have denied taxpayers, pension savers and financial institutions the benefits of full competition for these products, including the minimisation of borrowing costs," Michael Grenfell, executive director of enforcement at the CMA, said.
Deutsche Bank and Citi have admitted to participating in the alleged conversations relating to them, but HSBC, Morgan Stanley and RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) have not admitted any wrongdoing, it added.
The CMA said the probe is ongoing, and it could ultimately hand out fines if it concludes that two or more of the banks engaged in anticompetitive activity.
Spending calculator: See which prices have gone up or down
As we have been outlining through the morning, prices have increased over the past 12 months by 8.7% on average, putting pressure on already stretched household budgets.
But how much has your individual spending gone up? Use our calculator to see how much prices are rising on the groceries, clothing, and leisure activities you pay for.
Average house price drops by £3,000 since last month - but it's increased since last year
The average UK house price increased by 4.1% in the 12 months to March, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
A typical property now costs around £285,000 - £11,000 more than this time last year.
But March's figure is £8,000 cheaper than the recent peak in November, and £3,000 less than February.
Here's a national breakdown of house prices and how much they have risen since March 2022:
- England - £304,000 - up 4.1%
- Wales - £214,000 - up 4.8%
- Scotland - £185,000 - up 3%
- Northern Ireland - £172,000 - up 5%
Regular readers will remember earlier this week that Rightmove said house prices had jumped in the last month. Their figures are bang up to date - whereas the official ones released by the ONS have a lag.
Another interest rate hike now 'firmly on table'
It's not just our own Ed Conway who believes today's inflation figure could prompt another interest rate rise.
Pantheon Macroeconomics said the drop from 10.1% to 8.7% was "too small".
Interest rate rises, of course, are a way for the Bank of England to try to ease inflation, because they mean people have less money to spend, and are encouraged to save, and when this happens prices tend to go up less quickly.
Pantheon Macroeconomics says: "A further increase in Bank rate to 4.75% at the MPC's next meeting on 22 June, from 4.5%, now is firmly on the table."
Sky-high food prices and rising inflation in the services sector will be a "worry" for the Bank, the firm said.
On what will happen with inflation now, Pantheon Macroeconomics points to something that we're expecting tomorrow...
"CPI inflation will continue to fall quickly over the coming months. Tomorrow, Ofgem likely will announce that the typical household’s annualised energy bill will drop to about £2,050 in July, down 18% from the current £2,500 level.
"This will ensure that energy’s contribution to the headline rate falls."
Three-minute read: Cost of living crisis is starting to abate - so why are economists not happy and what could happen next?
By Ed Conway, economics and data editor
They sometimes call economics the "dismal science", and listening to economists today you can understand why.
Inflation - the percentage rate at which prices are rising each year - has just fallen out of double digits for the first time since last summer - down from 10.1% in March to 8.7% in April.
Finally, the cost of living crisis - or rather the rate at which the crisis is worsening - is beginning to abate. So why are economists so glum this morning?
It comes back to the fact that lurking beneath that one big inflation number are two separate issues. And while the news on one is good, the news on the other is bad.
Let's take the good news first.
The main thing pushing up the cost of living over the past couple of years has been rising energy prices.
They've been reflected in our household bills and our fuel costs, as well as, to some extent, everywhere else too. It has been a miserable period for many.
So it's welcome news that some of that pressure is beginning to abate. While energy bills are still many multiples higher than they were a few years ago, the rate at which they're rising (and remember, inflation is a rate of increase over a year, not absolute levels) is slowing.
The very biggest leaps in energy bills happened more than a year ago, and so the annual rate of energy price inflation no longer looks quite so dramatic.
And there'll be better news on this front tomorrow when Ofgem announces the latest level for the energy price cap - which will determine household bills later this summer.
It's expected to fall for the first time in years.
But there's something else going on here, too. Because when economists look at inflation they tend to be most exercised not by higher fuel or food prices.
Painful though they may be for households, these prices are quite volatile from year to year. But strip those volatile elements away from overall inflation, and you are left with something called "core inflation".
This is a better measure of the underlying direction of travel for inflation. If core inflation is high it means there's a greater chance that overall inflation stays high, not just for a short period but for the long run. And core inflation is high right now.
Indeed, far from falling in April like the overall rate, it actually rose, from 6.2% to 6.8%, the highest level in three decades.
That's the kind of number that deeply worries economists, since it suggests there's a chance inflation is becoming embedded in the economy - that households and businesses are beginning to assume prices are going to carry on rising for some time.
In other words, while the headline number reported today looks like good news for most of us - and indeed it is in some respects good news - the underlying picture from today's figures is quite the opposite. It suggests inflation is more sticky, more of a problem, than it previously seemed.
And the upshot of that is that the Bank of England is likely to look at today's figures and assume its work is not yet over.
Its job is to ensure inflation remains as close as possible to 2%, and today's figures make that job look a lot harder.
So the likelihood is that the Bank will raise interest rates again at its meeting next month, to 4.75%. And perhaps even higher thereafter, which will in turn only increase the pressure on many households.
Dismal as it might sound, this cost of living crisis isn't yet over.
Asda to run £1 kids meals again during half-term
To help with rising food prices, Asda has announced it will run its Kids Eat for £1 café meal deals over the forthcoming half-term.
The supermarket served over 115,000 meals in the two-week Easter holiday period.
"The deal stands apart from other retailers as it comes with no hidden extras such as a minimum adult spend," Asda said.
The menu includes Penne Pasta with Meatballs and a vegan Hidden Veg pasta meal. Kids also receive a free piece of fruit when purchasing the hot £1 meal deal.
As an alternative to a hot meal, Asda Café’s also offer a £1 cold pick and mix selection that includes a sandwich, drink and piece of fruit.
New prediction for when inflation will hit 2% target
While it is positive that inflation has fallen to 8.7%, it is still a long way off the Bank of England's 2% target - and as we have been discussing, the headline figure is not coming down as quickly as expected.
Alluding to the core inflation issue we outlined in our 7.42am post, Jake Finney, an economist at the PwC accounting firm, said: "More troublingly, services inflation - which the Bank of England pays close attention to - rose from 6.6% to 6.9%.
"This is its highest rate since March 1992 and is higher than the Bank of England's expectation of 6.7% earlier this month."
Following today's announcement and "more persistent inflation pressures", he believes the Bank will not hit its 2% target until late 2024.
"By then, consumer prices could have risen by as much as one-fifth," he added.
Despite this, Mr Finney predicts inflation will continue to fall over the coming months, with the next noteworthy decline likely to come in July when the energy price guarantee comes to an end.
"At that point, large falls in wholesale gas prices will start to translate into lower energy prices for UK consumers," he said.
FAQs
UK economy - latest: Interest rates will now rise again, experts predict - as new date for inflation falling to 2% forecast? ›
UK economy - latest: Interest rates will now rise again, experts predict - as new date for inflation falling to 2% forecast. The Bank of England is "probably going to have to raise interest rates again", says Ed Conway, as inflation falls to 8.7% - which is less than expected.
What is the next Bank of England interest rate decision 2023? ›The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 10 May 2023, the MPC voted by a majority of 7–2 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4.5%.
Will UK interest rates go up in 2023? ›In summary: On 11th May 2023 the Bank of England (BOE) raised the base rate from 4.25% to 4.5%, its highest level in over 14 years. The BOE raised interest rates in an attempt to reduce the UK's annual inflation rate, which now sits at 10.1%, well above the target rate of 2%.
What is the new UK inflation forecast? ›We expect inflation to fall quite quickly, to around 5% by the end of this year and then meet our 2% target by late 2024. Why is inflation expected to fall quickly during 2023? What is the Bank of England doing to help bring inflation down?
What is the interest rate forecast for the next 5 years in the UK? ›After hitting a new high of 5%, UK interest rates are expected to fall sharply in the coming two years with rates possibly between 3.5% and 4% in 2024 before falling to between 3% and 3.5% in 2025. UK interest rates are expected to stabilise between 3.0% and 3.5% between 2025 and 2027.
What will Bank of England interest rates be in 2024? ›| 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| BoE | 4.4% in Q2 | 4.4% in Q2 |
| ING | 4.5% | 4.5% in Q1; 3% in Q4 |
| Scotiabank | 4.25% | 3.25% |
The good news in the long-term is that most economists expect interest rates will decline. This is because inflation, which the Bank of England tries to control by using its base rate, is expected by the central bank to halve by the end of 2023 before falling below its target rate of 2% between 2024 and 2026.
How long will UK interest rates stay high? ›The Bank of England will cut the base rate to 3 per cent by the end of next year and then 2.5 per cent by the end of 2025, according to forecasts. That would be a substantial decline from the current 4.25 per cent but would still represent rates rising like a rocket and falling like a feather.
How high will UK interest rates go? ›Economists at UBS are also predicting a further interest rate rise in May, and are expecting inflation to average 6.5% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, before dropping to the Bank of England's 2% target by the end of 2025.
Where will interest rates be at the end of 2023? ›Mortgage Rate Predictions For 2023
How wide is the gap? Fannie Mae sees the average rate of a 30-year fixed getting to 6.8% in 2023. Meanwhile, the prediction from Freddie Mac is 6.4%. The Mortgage Bankers Association is the real outlier, projecting the 30-year rate at 5.2% next year.
What is the UK growth forecast for 2023? ›
The outlook for growth, while improving somewhat in recent months, remains subdued. Staff forecasts growth to slow to 0.4 percent in 2023, held back by tighter monetary and fiscal policies needed to curb inflation, and lingering impacts of the terms-of-trade shock.
What is the Bank of England inflation forecast for 2023? ›The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 10 May 2023, the MPC voted by a majority of 7–2 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4.5%.
What will inflation be in 2023 England? ›The CPIH inflation rate is added for comparison. The core CPIH annual inflation rate was 5.7% in March 2023, unchanged from February. The CPIH all goods index rose by 12.7% in the 12 months to March 2023, down from 13.4% in February.
Where will interest rates be in 5 years from now? ›The predictions made by the various analysts and banks provide insight into what the financial markets anticipate for interest rates over the next few years. Based on recent data, Trading Economics predicts a rise to 5% in 2023 before falling back down to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025.
Will the interest rates go down in 2024? ›Meanwhile, Scotiabank predicted as of 28 April the US interest rates to stay at 5.25% for 2023, and fall to 3.5% in 2024. In the short-term, analysts believed that the Fed is likely to keep the current rate on hold for the near future, provided inflation doesn't spike again.
What is the UK interest rate decision forecast? ›Forecasts show interest rates may now peak in September at around 4.9% - before starting to slowly come down after that. Interest rates have risen at 11 consecutive meetings since December 2021 in a bid to keep a lid on price pressures in the economy.
How high will Fed raise interest rates in 2024? ›More than half (or 53 percent) of experts polled for Bankrate's First-Quarter Economic Indicator poll say the Fed's key benchmark interest rate will peak in a target range of 5-5.25 percent, suggesting officials will likely only hike rates one more time. But that doesn't mean rate cuts are around the corner.
What will interest rates be in 2023 2024? ›| Loan Type | 10-Year Treasury Note High Yield | Fixed Interest Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Direct Subsidized Loans and Direct Unsubsidized Loans for Undergraduate Students | 3.448% | 5.50% |
| Direct Unsubsidized Loans for Graduate and Professional Students | 3.448% | 7.05% |
The new Bank of England base rate
The latest Bank of England base rate is: 4.50%. This is an increase of 0.25%, and was announced by the Bank of England (BoE) on 11 May 2023. From 1 June 2023 our tracker mortgage rates will increase in line with the base rate.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
“Long-term rates have already peaked. We expect that 30-year mortgage rates will end 2023 at 5.2%.”
How long will bank interest rates stay high? ›
The Fed is unlikely to raise rates further this year—but don't expect rates to fall anytime soon. Rates are likely to remain steady into 2024 or even 2025. The federal funds rate is what banks charge each other for overnight loans, and changes in the rate affect borrowing costs for various financial products.
Where can I get 5% interest on my savings UK? ›| Provider | Rate (AER) | How to open |
|---|---|---|
| Nationwide | 5.25% variable for two years | Online (also open to non-customers) |
| Barclays | 5.12% variable on up to £5,000 | Online/ app/ branch/ phone |
| TSB | 5% fixed for one year | Online/ branch |
| HSBC | 5% fixed for one year | Online/ branch/ phone |
The average interest rate for the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage reached 7.08%, as of Monday. However, with the economy expected to cool and possibly dip into a recession, many recent forecasts expect rates to drop to 6% or below in 2024, including a Fannie Mae projection of 5.2%.
What is the best savings rate in the UK? ›| Product type | AER | |
|---|---|---|
| Notice savings | 4.30% | See deals |
| Cash ISAs | 5.00% | See deals |
| 1 year fixed rate bond | 4.97% | See deals |
| 5 year fixed rate bond | 5.00% | See deals |
| Date | rate change | target rate |
|---|---|---|
| Nov. 1-2, 2022 | 0.75% | 3.75% - 4% |
| Dec. 13-14, 2022 | 0.50% | 4.25% - 4.5% |
| Jan. 31-Feb. 1, 2023 | 0.25% | 4.5% - 4.75% |
| March 21-22, 2023 | 0.25% | 4.75% - 5% |
The US Federal Reserve will deliver a final 25-basis-point interest rate increase in May and then hold rates steady for the rest of 2023, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The poll also showed that a short and shallow US recession is likely this year.
Will US interest rates go down in 2023? ›The Fed will likely nudge up rates in May or hold them steady depending on how economic data trends over the coming weeks. However, the bigger question is whether the Fed will be forced to cut rates later in 2023. Currently, markets see this as probable, but the Fed expects to maintain high rates for some time.
How bad will 2023 recession be UK? ›The UK is expected to avoid recession in 2023 and start to return to trend growth rates towards the end of next year but its recovery is still underperforming compared to G7 peers, according to the latest edition of PwC's UK Economic Outlook.
What is the latest economic forecast for 2023? ›Description: The baseline forecast is for growth to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before settling at 3.0 percent in 2024. Advanced economies are expected to see an especially pronounced growth slowdown, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023.
What is the US economic forecast for 2023 2024? ›We forecast real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2023 and 0.8% in 2024, and headline CPI inflation of 4.0% and 2.8%, respectively. With ongoing credit tightening and a broad-based slowdown, we look for the Fed to lift its policy rate once more in May to a range of 5.00-5.25% before a pause into 2024.
What will inflation be in September 2023 UK? ›
In 2023, the annual inflation rate for the United Kingdom is expected to be 6.1 percent, following an annual rate of 9.1 percent in 2022. Prior to 2022, the inflation rate was at it's highest in 2011 when it reached 4.5 percent.
Will inflation go away in 2023? ›In 2023, economic activity is projected to stagnate, with rising unemployment and falling inflation. Interest rates are projected to remain high initially and then gradually decrease in the next few years as inflation continues to slow.
What is inflation predicted to be September 2023? ›In all scenarios, there is a rapid fall in inflation from February 2023, which is due to the drop out of the high inflation figures in the corresponding months this year. However, inflation will remain well above 3% for the whole of 2023 and NIESR's current forecast is that it will not return to target until mid-2025.
What is the projected inflation rate for the next 5 years? ›Basic Info. US Expected Change in Inflation Rates: Next 5 Years is at 3.20%, compared to 3.00% last month and 3.00% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 3.20%.
What will inflation be in 2023 to 2025? ›All agencies predicted that CPI inflation in 2023 will be 0.8-1.5% higher compared to the Federal Reserve target of 2%. By 2025, CPI inflation in the US is expected to return to 2%. The inflation rate depends on the balance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand within the economy.
Where will interest rates be in 2027? ›Interest Rates for 2021 to 2027. CBO projects that the interest rates on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes will average 2.8 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, during the 2021–2027 period. The federal funds rate is projected to average 3.1 percent.
When was the last time we had 7% interest rates? ›1990s. In the 1990s, inflation started to calm down a little bit. The average mortgage rate in 1990 was 10.13%, but it slowly fell, finally dipping below 7% to come in at 6.94% in 1998.
Will interest rates go down in 2023 for cars? ›In December of 2022, the Fed indicated that it expects the funds rate to fall to 4.1% by the end of 2024 after reaching the 5.1% mark by the end of 2023. If that holds true and the federal interest rate begins to fall, auto loan rates should start to drop shortly after.
Should I buy a house now or wait until 2023 UK? ›While reduced interest rates may mean demand for houses could increase, this will also make monthly mortgage payments more affordable, which could mean 2023 is the perfect year for you to buy a house instead of waiting until 2024.
Are UK interest rates rising again? ›The Bank of England has yet again hiked interest rates, in the 12th consecutive rise since December 2021.
What happens if the interest rate is higher in the US than in the UK and if the forward rate of the British pound? ›
If the interest rate is higher in the U.S. than in the United Kingdom, and if the forward rate of the British pound (in U.S. dollars) is the same as the pound's spot rate, then: British investors could possibly benefit from covered interest arbitrage.
What is the next expected Bank of England interest rate? ›Economists at UBS are also predicting a further interest rate rise in May, and are expecting inflation to average 6.5% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, before dropping to the Bank of England's 2% target by the end of 2025.
What date is the next Bank of England base rate review? ›When is the next Bank of England base rate meeting? The Bank of England next meet on 22 June 2023 to make a decision on the base rate. They meet every six weeks, but in times of crisis may meet more frequently - with the Coronavirus pandemic being a good example of this.
Where will bank interest rates be in 2023? ›With rising federal funds rates comes an increase in savings interest rates. Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents predict the federal funds rate will reach between 3.9% and 4.9% in 2023.
What will Bank of England interest rate be in 2025? ›The Bank's current projections state that interest rates will fall back to 3.6 per cent in 2025, declining further to 3.3 per cent in 2026.
How much will Bank of England base rate rise? ›HMRC interest rates for late payments will be revised following the Bank of England interest rate rise to 4.5%. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee announced on 11 May 2023 to increase the Bank of England base rate to 4.5% from 4.25%. HMRC interest rates are linked to the Bank of England base rate.
What is current UK interest rate? ›Bank Rate is currently 4.5%.
What is the interest rate forecast for 2023 and 2024? ›Meanwhile, Scotiabank predicted as of 28 April the US interest rates to stay at 5.25% for 2023, and fall to 3.5% in 2024. In the short-term, analysts believed that the Fed is likely to keep the current rate on hold for the near future, provided inflation doesn't spike again.
Which bank gives 7% interest on savings account? ›While 7% with Landmark Credit Union is the highest available interest rate, other high-yield savings accounts exist and may be more worth it based on each bank's unique requirements.
Will interest rates come back down in 2023? ›When it becomes more attractive to save money, consumers tend to spend less of it. But the Fed isn't done fighting inflation. And because of that, consumers should not expect interest rates to drop in 2023. However, rates may also not climb much from where they are today.
What interest rate hikes are expected in 2023? ›
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5%-5.25% during its May 2023 meeting, marking the 10th increase and bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since September 2007.